Barely passing won't cut it
Unless the Wild reverses its inconsistent ways, it'll be tough to
count on any playoff success.
http://www.startribune.com/sports/wild/13072571.html
By MICHAEL RUSSO, Star Tribune
Last update: January 5, 2008
It's midseason time, and if the season ended today, the Wild would
partake in the postseason.
Yet, doesn't the Wild seem like a coffee-loaded college student who
goes to Denny's at 3 a.m. to cram for the day's midterm?
The Wild is just barely getting by, and this professor's not fooled:
C's all around.
After 41 games last season, the Wild had 44 points. This season,
heading into the season's halfway point tonight against the Predators,
the Wild has 48.
The standings say the Wild is better. One's eyes and all the
statistical evidence say something quite different.
"The team, we're not playing as good as we did last year," said coach
Jacques Lemaire, stressing the word 'team.' "The team is not as good.
But we're starting to play better."
Struggling against top teams
The Wild's position in the standings -- sixth in the West -- seems
like an anomaly. Proof?
The Wild has seven regulation home losses in 21 games, the same amount
it had in 41 last season. The Wild has scored 2.72 goals a game,
ranking 17th in the NHL. The normally stingy Wild, which gave up the
fewest goals in the league last season, is averaging 2.7 goals against
(ranking 13th). The Wild, normally tremendous penalty killers, ranks
14th on the penalty kill. The Wild takes 25.8 shots a game (27th) and
allows 30.0 (21st). It has scored two shorthanded goal while allowing
eight, both near the NHL's bottom. Five-on-five, the Wild is in the
middle of the pack.
And it has had trouble competing with the top teams in the West, going
2-7 against Detroit, Dallas, San Jose and Vancouver, suffering
lopsided losses in five and being outscored 38-19.
"That's what the second half has got to produce -- wins against the
top teams, there's no doubt about that," General Manager Doug
Risebrough said. "But I think we're all for the most part, maybe with
the exception of three or four teams, feeling the same thing -- ups
and downs and inconsistency."
Team lacks identity
The NHL has set up a league in which every team is a virtual clone,
and the logjam standings are proof. But the Wild seems to have lost
its calling card.
What exactly defines this team? The Wild doesn't deploy a potent
offense. Pavol Demitra has been missing all year, which has meant the
magic he showed with Marian Gaborik during last year's second half has
vanished. The Brian Rolston-Eric Belanger-Pierre-Marc Bouchard line
has gone through lulls, although all three are hot now. Mark Parrish
went a five-week stretch without a goal, although he's heating up,
too.
The Wild certainly hasn't possessed a shutdown defense like it did
last season or in 2003, proven by its goals against. So this isn't the
same team that used to keep games close, frustrate opponents and
pounce on mistakes. Now, it's the Wild making mistakes and playing
loose.
The second-half challenge is for the Wild to find an identity. Last
season, the Wild, the NHL's best home team at 17-4-1 at the midway
point, was the worst road team at 4-14-1. But it put together a strong
second-half turnaround, going 27-8-6 overall.
This is mostly the same team, so it's certainly capable of going on a
run, and there are signs that it's beginning.
In particular, Bouchard and Brent Burns are developing into go-to
guys. Bouchard is scorching hot, leading the Wild with nine multipoint
games. And Burns has already equaled last season's 77-game point total
(25) in 40 games.
Koivu's return will be key
But what else needs to happen?
* The Wild needs heart-and-soul center Mikko Koivu, who will miss his
22nd game tonight because of a broken leg, back. Maybe his return will
provide the spark Gaborik's return provided last year at this time.
Koivu's presence would allow Demitra to return to left wing, where
he's more comfortable and would be more of a threat. Plus, Koivu was
arguably the Wild's best player the first 19 games.
"He was the type of guy, no matter who [Lemaire] put him with, it
worked," Risebrough said. "When we needed somebody, whether it was
offensively or defensively, it was him."
* The Wild needs a more committed Gaborik, who continues to frustrate
Lemaire. His five-goal game was magnificent, but he's not a threat
every night like true superstars Vincent Lecavalier, Dany Heatley and
Jarome Iginla.
* The Wild needs a team more committed offensively and defensively.
That means protecting its own net while crashing the opposing net.
* The Wild needs more consistent goaltending. Statistically, Niklas
Backstrom's 16 wins, 2.46 goals-against average and .914 save
percentage are respectable. But this is not the same Backstrom who led
the NHL last season with a 1.97 GAA and .929 save percentage.
To be fair, nobody in the league was better than Backstrom, but last
season Backstrom was always calm in net, always in control. How often
did he have to make a miraculous save? He was virtually guaranteed to
surrender two or fewer goals a game.
"I think he can improve his game," Risebrough said. "A lot of it is
getting on a roll. He got on a roll last year and rode it right to the
end. That hasn't happened yet, but that doesn't mean it won't happen."
Don't expect deadline deal
It will be an interesting second half. Most likely, there won't be any
dramatic trade-deadline moves, so this is the cast that will have to
get it done.
Currently, the Wild hasn't been good enough to compete with the elite,
and it's hard to imagine loyal Wild fans will be satisfied with
squeaking into the playoffs and not succeeding there again.
Whatever happens, this will be a very different-looking team next
year. Demitra, Rolston and Nick Schultz are unrestricted free agents,
and it's doubtful all three will be back.
"I think the opportunity for this group of players is now," Risebrough
said. "I don't think that means that it's the opportunity for this
organization. We have done a good job balancing youth, and we'll be
good for a long time.
"But there's no doubt the window for this group of players is now."
---
- Scott Smith: scott.smith RemoveThis @iphouse.com
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