Michalek extension

"Greg Lentz" said:
> On Tue, 21 Aug 2007 12:31:04 -0700, "Duane" <letskeepit.TakeThisOut@posting4now.com>
> wrote:
>
>>XM radio reports that a Czech newspaper reports than Milan Michalek has
>>signed an extension for 6 years at $26M. Not bad...
>
> Seems like an awful lot of money for a kid who, near as I can tell, has
> never been a PPG scorer at any level of professional hockey.

Perhaps. But Milan stood to be the Dustin Penner of next season's free
agent derby. DW was smart to lock him up now. The other RFA's for next
summer are: Bernier, Pavelski, Goc, Clowe, Carle, and Ehrhoff. The UFAs are
Marleau, Brown, and Rissmiller. The Sharks already have $25M commited to 9
players, and it will take $6m to re-sign Marleau. It will be dificult to
sign all of the others. If GMs really do start raiding other teams for
their RFAs, Wilson has a big ole target on his back right now.
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

On Tue, 21 Aug 2007 15:07:13 -0700, "Duane" <letskeepit RemoveThis @posting4now.com>
wrote:

>"Greg Lentz" said:
>> On Tue, 21 Aug 2007 12:31:04 -0700, "Duane" <letskeepit RemoveThis @posting4now.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>XM radio reports that a Czech newspaper reports than Milan Michalek has
>>>signed an extension for 6 years at $26M. Not bad...
>>
>> Seems like an awful lot of money for a kid who, near as I can tell, has
>> never been a PPG scorer at any level of professional hockey.
>
>Perhaps. But Milan stood to be the Dustin Penner of next season's free
>agent derby. DW was smart to lock him up now. The other RFA's for next
>summer are: Bernier, Pavelski, Goc, Clowe, Carle, and Ehrhoff. The UFAs are
>Marleau, Brown, and Rissmiller. The Sharks already have $25M commited to 9
>players, and it will take $6m to re-sign Marleau. It will be dificult to
>sign all of the others. If GMs really do start raiding other teams for
>their RFAs, Wilson has a big ole target on his back right now.

The bigger more important question is not whether they need to worry about
losing some of those guys as it is which guys have the most upside and to
tie those guys up first. Michalek may be have the biggest upside for all
I know, but I'm not sure that they necessarily gave him a contract that is
in their best interests. If he improves his scoring, than they did, but
that's always a tricky thing to project.
--
Greg Lentz
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

On Aug 21, 6:41 pm, Greg Lentz <nodamns....RemoveThis@speakeasy.net> wrote:
> On Tue, 21 Aug 2007 15:07:13 -0700, "Duane" <letskee....RemoveThis@posting4now.com>
> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> >"Greg Lentz" said:
> >> On Tue, 21 Aug 2007 12:31:04 -0700, "Duane" <letskee....RemoveThis@posting4now.com>
> >> wrote:
>
> >>>XM radio reports that a Czech newspaper reports than Milan Michalek has
> >>>signed an extension for 6 years at $26M. Not bad...
>
> >> Seems like an awful lot of money for a kid who, near as I can tell, has
> >> never been a PPG scorer at any level of professional hockey.
>
> >Perhaps. But Milan stood to be the Dustin Penner of next season's free
> >agent derby. DW was smart to lock him up now. The other RFA's for next
> >summer are: Bernier, Pavelski, Goc, Clowe, Carle, and Ehrhoff. The UFAs are
> >Marleau, Brown, and Rissmiller. The Sharks already have $25M commited to 9
> >players, and it will take $6m to re-sign Marleau. It will be dificult to
> >sign all of the others. If GMs really do start raiding other teams for
> >their RFAs, Wilson has a big ole target on his back right now.
>
> The bigger more important question is not whether they need to worry about
> losing some of those guys as it is which guys have the most upside and to
> tie those guys up first. Michalek may be have the biggest upside for all
> I know, but I'm not sure that they necessarily gave him a contract that is
> in their best interests. If he improves his scoring, than they did, but
> that's always a tricky thing to project.
> --
> Greg Lentz- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

Hey, if teams want to overpay, like Edmonton for Penner, let 'em.

Just watch, that deal will turn out like Philly giving away the farm
to Quebec/Colorado for Lindros.
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

On Aug 21, 1:50 pm, Greg Lentz <nodamns....RemoveThis@speakeasy.net> wrote:
> On Tue, 21 Aug 2007 12:31:04 -0700, "Duane" <letskee....RemoveThis@posting4now.com>
> wrote:
>
> >XM radio reports that a Czech newspaper reports than Milan Michalek has
> >signed an extension for 6 years at $26M. Not bad...
>
> Seems like an awful lot of money for a kid who, near as I can tell, has
> never been a PPG scorer at any level of professional hockey.
> --
> Greg Lentz

Me, I worry about tying up a ton of money in Nabby and Rivet, either
of whom could fade in a couple years.

I like this contract a lot. I think the key is to look at how he did
with Joe. This team was floundering in Feb. It needs to maximize the
Joe factor at all costs. Then Milan was put on the 1st line and scored
25 goals in his last 20 games (not sure about exactly when he went to
first line, but approx last 20 games is about right I think)

Losing him next year would be far more damaging to this team than the
Ducks losing Penner, IMO.

I don't mind tying up a young guy with as much upside at Milan, who is
an obviously critical piece of their puzzle.
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

On Tue, 21 Aug 2007 23:36:22 -0000, "Mr. T" <ted.pederson DeleteThis @gmail.com>
wrote:

>On Aug 21, 1:50 pm, Greg Lentz <nodamns... DeleteThis @speakeasy.net> wrote:
>> On Tue, 21 Aug 2007 12:31:04 -0700, "Duane" <letskee... DeleteThis @posting4now.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> >XM radio reports that a Czech newspaper reports than Milan Michalek has
>> >signed an extension for 6 years at $26M. Not bad...
>>
>> Seems like an awful lot of money for a kid who, near as I can tell, has
>> never been a PPG scorer at any level of professional hockey.
>
>Me, I worry about tying up a ton of money in Nabby and Rivet, either
>of whom could fade in a couple years.

Well, the Nabokov contract was a mistake. I don't think anyone disputes
that. Rivet, I guess we'll see. Four years might have been a bit too
much given that he'll be 33 in September.

>I like this contract a lot. I think the key is to look at how he did
>with Joe.

I think the key is looking at anyone who plays with Thornton is to realize
that Thornton makes their job a hell of a lot easier. This is what wasn't
well understood when some folks though Cheechoo was a budding superstar
because he scored 56 goals getting set up for goals from Thornton passes.

>This team was floundering in Feb. It needs to maximize the
>Joe factor at all costs. Then Milan was put on the 1st line and scored
>25 goals in his last 20 games (not sure about exactly when he went to
>first line, but approx last 20 games is about right I think)

I think 20 games is not a lot of time to make a good assessment about
anybody.

>I don't mind tying up a young guy with as much upside at Milan, who is
>an obviously critical piece of their puzzle.

How critical though? How much does he stand out from your average NHL
first/second line winger? I readily admit I don't know the answer to
that. For all I know, they tied him up for several years at a bargain
rate. I just think it's a bit of a gamble where they're assuming that
he's going to continue to improve past where he is now. He may, but he
may be one of many guys in the NHL who settles in as a roughly 30 goal a
year scorer. Nothing you would throw away, but also not something that's
impossible to get. Given that the Sharks seem to be a budget conscious
team, they have to be careful of how they spend their money. They already
blew it once with Nabokov, overpaying an average at best starting goalie.
--
Greg Lentz
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

On Aug 21, 5:02 pm, Greg Lentz <nodamns....RemoveThis@speakeasy.net> wrote:
> On Tue, 21 Aug 2007 23:36:22 -0000, "Mr. T" <ted.peder....RemoveThis@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> >On Aug 21, 1:50 pm, Greg Lentz <nodamns....RemoveThis@speakeasy.net> wrote:
> >> On Tue, 21 Aug 2007 12:31:04 -0700, "Duane" <letskee....RemoveThis@posting4now.com>
> >> wrote:
>
> >> >XM radio reports that a Czech newspaper reports than Milan Michalek has
> >> >signed an extension for 6 years at $26M. Not bad...
>
> >> Seems like an awful lot of money for a kid who, near as I can tell, has
> >> never been a PPG scorer at any level of professional hockey.
>
> >Me, I worry about tying up a ton of money in Nabby and Rivet, either
> >of whom could fade in a couple years.
>
> Well, the Nabokov contract was a mistake. I don't think anyone disputes
> that. Rivet, I guess we'll see. Four years might have been a bit too
> much given that he'll be 33 in September.
>
> >I like this contract a lot. I think the key is to look at how he did
> >with Joe.
>
> I think the key is looking at anyone who plays with Thornton is to realize
> that Thornton makes their job a hell of a lot easier. This is what wasn't
> well understood when some folks though Cheechoo was a budding superstar
> because he scored 56 goals getting set up for goals from Thornton passes.
>
> >This team was floundering in Feb. It needs to maximize the
> >Joe factor at all costs. Then Milan was put on the 1st line and scored
> >25 goals in his last 20 games (not sure about exactly when he went to
> >first line, but approx last 20 games is about right I think)
>
> I think 20 games is not a lot of time to make a good assessment about
> anybody.
>
> >I don't mind tying up a young guy with as much upside at Milan, who is
> >an obviously critical piece of their puzzle.
>
> How critical though? How much does he stand out from your average NHL
> first/second line winger? I readily admit I don't know the answer to
> that. For all I know, they tied him up for several years at a bargain
> rate. I just think it's a bit of a gamble where they're assuming that
> he's going to continue to improve past where he is now. He may, but he
> may be one of many guys in the NHL who settles in as a roughly 30 goal a
> year scorer. Nothing you would throw away, but also not something that's
> impossible to get. Given that the Sharks seem to be a budget conscious
> team, they have to be careful of how they spend their money. They already
> blew it once with Nabokov, overpaying an average at best starting goalie.
> --
> Greg Lentz

You make a lot of good points. Unfortunately Milan is the closest
thing the Sharks have to a true 1st line winger. He has it all,
skills, speed, and size, he has a ton of upside. Not saying that 4 mil
a year couldn't buy you a more known quantity, but I'm OK with this
one.
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

"Mr. T" <said:
> You make a lot of good points. Unfortunately Milan is the closest
> thing the Sharks have to a true 1st line winger. He has it all,
> skills, speed, and size, he has a ton of upside. Not saying that 4 mil
> a year couldn't buy you a more known quantity, but I'm OK with this
> one.

Huh? Cheechoo is not a "true 1st line winger"? Are you insane? He scored
over 30 goals in the dead era without Joe. He was the team leader last
season with 37 when he fought injuries.

Anyway, back to Michalek, and this is to address Greg's points, since I am
too lazy to find his post and respond seperately, the guy is 22, fast,
excellent defensively, big, and can put the puck in the net. He will only
get better now, and the Sharks have him locked up for a long time. They
have Joe and Cheech locked up too, so the first line is set for this year
and next year and the year after that. The problems are signing the other
guys, and since Michalek's 2008-9 cap figure will be 26/6, or 4.33M/yr, the
Sharks now have $29M committed for 10 guys. It will take a miracle to sign
everyone else.

That said, I think DW is doing something very smart. The RFA guys you don't
want to risk getting offer sheets are the ones like Penner, Michalek, and,
of course, guys like Crosby. Michalek was a #6 pick, and in my book, that
is worth a mid to high range (playoff team) 1st, 2nd, and 3rd pick, and the
fact that he is working out makes this doubly so. Bernier? Maybe. If he
explodes out of the gate, DW better lock him up too. If he scores 30, that
puts him in Penner territory.

But what if the Sharks come out really strong and everyone plays well?
Well, that will be a big problem. But a nice problem to have... I don't
feel too sorry for Burke.
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

On Aug 25, 8:52 pm, "Duane" <letskee....RemoveThis@posting4now.com> wrote:
> "Mr. T" <said:
>
> > You make a lot of good points. Unfortunately Milan is the closest
> > thing the Sharks have to a true 1st line winger. He has it all,
> > skills, speed, and size, he has a ton of upside. Not saying that 4 mil
> > a year couldn't buy you a more known quantity, but I'm OK with this
> > one.
>
> Huh? Cheechoo is not a "true 1st line winger"? Are you insane? He scored
> over 30 goals in the dead era without Joe. He was the team leader last
> season with 37 when he fought injuries.

Yeah I didn't put that very well. Cheech is a 1st liner obviously, and
they already have him locked up. It's all the other guys that they
need to work on.

Still I would say even Cheech was probably projected as a 2nd liner,
or at worst a great 3rd liner with tons of character. When a guy comes
up who skates that poorly and isn't particularly big, physical, and
lacking in various skill departments, he doesn't scream first line
impact player. But that's why he's one of my favorite all time
players. He's got the heart and will.

And you said it yourself after the incredible year: 1) that may be the
apex of his career, and 2) without Joe he still isn't an elite 1st
liner.

Now, right now would I rather have Cheech or Michalek on my team if I
could only take 1? Cheech all the way, but...Milan still has crazy
upside.

> Anyway, back to Michalek, and this is to address Greg's points, since I am
> too lazy to find his post and respond seperately, the guy is 22, fast,
> excellent defensively, big, and can put the puck in the net. He will only
> get better now, and the Sharks have him locked up for a long time. They
> have Joe and Cheech locked up too, so the first line is set for this year
> and next year and the year after that. The problems are signing the other
> guys, and since Michalek's 2008-9 cap figure will be 26/6, or 4.33M/yr, the
> Sharks now have $29M committed for 10 guys. It will take a miracle to sign
> everyone else.

Depending on whether they re-sign Marleau and for how much, yeah it
could get very tough within their tight-fisted framework.

> That said, I think DW is doing something very smart. The RFA guys you don't
> want to risk getting offer sheets are the ones like Penner, Michalek, and,
> of course, guys like Crosby. Michalek was a #6 pick, and in my book, that
> is worth a mid to high range (playoff team) 1st, 2nd, and 3rd pick, and the
> fact that he is working out makes this doubly so. Bernier? Maybe. If he
> explodes out of the gate, DW better lock him up too. If he scores 30, that
> puts him in Penner territory.

I really like Bernier and keep hoping he turns it on. Still, if he has
one great season I wouldn't empty the bank on him. I'd still take
picks if someone tried to swipe him. Consistency isn't his forte thus
far, and even one good season might not be enough to entice DW to bank
on him.

> But what if the Sharks come out really strong and everyone plays well?
> Well, that will be a big problem. But a nice problem to have... I don't
> feel too sorry for Burke.
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

"Mr. T" said:
> And you said it yourself after the incredible year: 1) that may be the
> apex of his career, and 2) without Joe he still isn't an elite 1st
> liner.

Are you sure I said that? Cheechoo already had an excellent 2nd line year,
or a very acceptable 1st line one, the year before Joe arrived. Who knows
what he would have scored without Joe? But if they are clicking and injury
free, I see no reason Cheechoo can't top 60 goals.

> I really like Bernier and keep hoping he turns it on. Still, if he has
> one great season I wouldn't empty the bank on him. I'd still take
> picks if someone tried to swipe him. Consistency isn't his forte thus
> far, and even one good season might not be enough to entice DW to bank
> on him.

I compared him to Penner because both play much the same power game to the
net. I have high hopes for him, after his classic sophomore slump last
season. Its OK, he was in good company. Look at Eric Staal the last two
seasons...

Will Clowe have his slump this year? I hope not. I really like
Michalek/Thornton/Cheechoo followed by Clowe/Marleau/Bernier If he does
slump, I'll take Marleau/Pavelski/Bernier.

Jeff Friesen is still out there on the UFA list, with no takers, after he
somehow lost the ability to score goals. Since they could probably get him
for the NHL minimum, and since Smith doesn't seem to want to sign, why not
pick him up as a depth player? He's still pretty fast, won't hurt them
defensively playing 6 minutes per game, and might even have some goals left
in him in the right situation.
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

On Aug 27, 12:01 pm, "Duane" <letskee....RemoveThis@posting4now.com> wrote:
> "Mr. T" said:
>
> > And you said it yourself after the incredible year: 1) that may be the
> > apex of his career, and 2) without Joe he still isn't an elite 1st
> > liner.
>
> Are you sure I said that? Cheechoo already had an excellent 2nd line year,

Oh yeah wait a minute, you're the one who bet he would repeat 50+?
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

"Mr. T" said:
> Oh yeah wait a minute, you're the one who bet he would repeat 50+?

Yep! And there is one season left in that bet, otherwise, I have to buy
Tack dinner. And I'm not worried. The only way he won't score that many is
if he or Joe are injured.
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

On Aug 27, 1:38 pm, "Duane" <letskee... RemoveThis @posting4now.com> wrote:
> "Mr. T" said:
>
> > Oh yeah wait a minute, you're the one who bet he would repeat 50+?
>
> Yep! And there is one season left in that bet, otherwise, I have to buy
> Tack dinner. And I'm not worried. The only way he won't score that many is
> if he or Joe are injured.

I'd like to think you can write Cheech in for 30-45 goals a year for
the forseeable future. I'd like to think there's a huge year in there
too where he could be near the top in goals scored.

Geting back to the Michalek signing, again I like it because the
Sharks were languishing all year, looking for a top line. They put
Milan up there and he got 25 goals in the last 20 games. Did that
steal some of the goals from Cheech? No. Cheech got 15 of his 37 in
those 20 games, scoring at a better pace.

Hopefully the Sharks can finally leave the 1st line alone, and those
guys can become one of the tops lines year after year. 300pts out of
that line is certainly conceivable.

Between Cheech and Milan, maybe one guy goes up a bit and the other
down, but most nights they should hurt you one way or the other, like
Manning feeding Harrison and Wayne, or Palmer feeding CJ and Housh.
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension 

"Mr. T" said:
> Between Cheech and Milan, maybe one guy goes up a bit and the other
> down, but most nights they should hurt you one way or the other, like
> Manning feeding Harrison and Wayne, or Palmer feeding CJ and Housh.

Or a more modern example, Heatley, Spezza, and Alfredsson were nearly at 300
pts last year, and probably would have been very close if Spezza had not
missed so many games. Look at what Joe and Cheech did with Ekman. Michalek
is a vast improvement over Ek, and with a full year together, they should
light it up. I am *expecting* a great year from all of them. But maybe it
is just that time of year...an optimist's spring...
 >> Stay informed about: Michalek extension